Future Studies

Risk and Opportunity – the simplest framework

All organizations occasionally should stop and consider the risks and opportunities facing them, and discuss both mitigation options for the risks and exploitation options for the opportunity. There are many different ways of doing this, but one of the simplest frameworks is the tried and tested impact / probability matrix. What you do is list all possible risks (or opportunities) first in a small group. … Continue reading Risk and Opportunity – the simplest framework

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Mental Models

The study of failure mode (Mental Models XII)

In John Gall’s peculiar Systemantics: The Systems Bible the reader will find a wealth of often funny but always deep insights. One of these insights that has occupied me lately is this: The important point is: ANY LARGE SYSTEM IS GOING TO BE OPERATING MOST OF THE TIME IN FAILURE MODE What the System is supposed to be doing when everything is working well is … Continue reading The study of failure mode (Mental Models XII)

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Artificial Intelligence, Mental Models

Limiting factors (Mental Models XI)

One interesting way of approaching a problem is to identify the limiting factors – what is that sets the ultimate limits for progress on a particular issue? In many cases it will be time – there are some things we could do in theory, but where the time needed exceeds the calculated time available to us individually or cosmologically. This means that time is a … Continue reading Limiting factors (Mental Models XI)

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Future Studies, Games

The re-emergence of wargaming

Wargames have a cold war-feel to them, and are sometimes associated with cynical and military men turning the tragedy of war into a calculation. So it seems confusing that the practice of wargaming should have regained some of its popularity no, long after the cold war disappeared – but a few recent articles suggest that this is indeed the case. The use of wargames is … Continue reading The re-emergence of wargaming

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Commentary

The reception of Plato in China

Enjoyed this episode of Mindscape on my lunch walk today. Strongly recommended. One of the items they discuss is how Plato is received in China and how the Chinese scholars have read Plato’s Republic. There is an interesting bit about how the Noble Lie in Plato should be understood – since it seems deeply self-defeating to reveal that your ideal plan for a state rests … Continue reading The reception of Plato in China

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Commentary

Opening up subscriptions for newsletter for a bit

Edit 21.2: Thank you for the kind interest. I have no shifted over to by invitation only again, as not to have the community grow to larger or too fast. I really want feedback and ideas and not just maximize the number of readers. I have been running a newsletter in parallel to this blog for 8 weeks now. This is another part of my … Continue reading Opening up subscriptions for newsletter for a bit

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