We have written before about the question of how often we should expect pandemics -- the simple model we applied then was this: is Covid-19 an example of a Spanish flu like event and so likely 1/100 years or should we consider it a sars-virus spill over event, of which we roughly have 1/10 year… Continue reading Pandemic periodicity
Month: August 2021
Folk prediction
What kind of data sets can be helpful for predictions? One category of data that often are ignored are the data that you can get by simply asking people - or, as it is sometimes called, "walking about". In a recent article about predicting unemployment, the authors note that this kind of often qualitative data… Continue reading Folk prediction
Ten year horizons – a methodological note
How can we deal with ten year forecasting and planning in an interesting way? The naive approach would be to simply guess what state of the world will be probable in ten years, and then describe that as well as we can. This is akin to a kind of science fiction writing, and can add… Continue reading Ten year horizons – a methodological note