Capability forecasting

A lot of work has gone into what is sometimes called "technology forecasting" - attempting to understand how semiconductors, artificial intelligence, quantum computing, proteomics etc will evolve over the coming years. Such research is valuable and interesting - and can be interestingly contrasted with something we could call "capability forecasting". Capability forecasting is focusing not… Continue reading Capability forecasting

Measures and causes of centralization of the Internet

Here is a narrative about the Internet that is getting more and more common: It certainly seems that the Internet is now the realm of a small number of enterprises that dominate this space. This is no longer a diverse, vibrant environment where new entrants compete on equal terms with incumbents, where the pace of… Continue reading Measures and causes of centralization of the Internet

Deep uncertainty(Mental models XV)

The concept of deep uncertainty is intriguing and important - as defined it is: Deep uncertainty exists when parties to a decision do not know, or cannot agree on, the system model that relates action to consequences, the probability distributions to place over the inputs to these models, which consequences to consider and their relative… Continue reading Deep uncertainty(Mental models XV)

Intolerance and polarization as survival strategies

A recent study in PNAS suggests that we can at least start thinking about that through inversion - the study of what intolerance is. By looking at the areas of the brain that activate during polarized responses etc a group of researchers are now arguing that intolerance is strongly correlated with a need for certainty.… Continue reading Intolerance and polarization as survival strategies