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What do we mean when we say we do not understand something?

Notes on ignorance
Stockholm 2024-03-25
Words: 1611

Kinds of ignorance

In discussing AI, it is commonplace to hear people say that we are building something we do not understand, or some variation on this theme. This is of course both exciting and terrifying, but it also is somewhat unclear exactly what is meant by the statement. The same goes for the idea that many of the systems we are building are black boxes, and that we need explainable AI in order to be able to trust what the systems do – or to deploy them. 1 This idea is finding its way into various pieces of legislation as well, making it even more imperative that we understand what we mean by it.

What seems to be needed is some kind of taxonomy of ignorance.

There are many different ways in which we can not understand something, and so trying to explore the different modes of ignorance then becomes important for us to discuss if we believe there are specific kinds of ignorance that we should be more or less worried about. Here is a first suggested sketch of a few different possible kinds of ignorance.

All of these different kinds of ignorance are interesting, but are they equally concerning for us when we study artificial intelligence? Possibly not — we may care much more about how a system works (and that in turn may be beyond the complexity horizon for us) than about that computational implementation of the system. The bigger question is perhaps what we think that the overall consequences of different kinds of ignorance should be.

Here we need to think through what our possible responses to ignorance are — if we find that we are, collectively or individually, in a state of ignorance about something we may want to adopt certain mitigation strategies. The first, and most obvious of these, is to find things out. If we find that is not possible, we have a more difficult problem on our hands, and then we need to think through if there are reasonable responses to irreducible ignorance.

Labyrinths and mazes

There is a parallel here to the discussion about perfect knowledge, risk and uncertainty, but I have come to suspect that it might actually be reasonable to discuss ignorance separately from uncertainty, because it seems qualitatively different to me.

It is not the same to say that I am uncertain about how this technology work, as saying that I do not understand how this technology works.

Why? The counter-argument would be that when ignorance becomes absolute, we do in fact have to do with pure Knightian uncertainty as to what the technology does. 6 The idea of Knightian uncertainty being that you cannot reduce it to risk, it makes no sense to assess the probability of such uncertainty at all. See Knight, F.H., 1921. Risk, uncertainty and profit (Vol. 31). Houghton Mifflin. But uncertainty refers to actions, to decisions and predictions. Ignorance is in some sense not action related, it is a state of the world where we may not even know if we understand the nature of the object we are trying to examine. The best I can offer for this intuition is that ignorance is to uncertainty as ontology is to epistemology, and this is incomplete at best.

Or, perhaps this: uncertainty is a maze, and ignorance is a labyrinth.

The difference between mazes and labyrinths is interesting — the maze has several different paths to the center, the labyrinth only one — and so mazes are often associated with play and games, whereas the labyrinth dates back millennia and often is used in religious and spiritual contexts. In the labyrinth, the single path signifies some kind of journey towards knowledge – where as the maze merely allows different ways of making a decision. Uncertainty is instrumentally interesting, ignorance is ethically relevant.

Ok, that is almost certainly overdoing the analysis, but I remain convinced there is something to this distinction that is important.

Ignorance in classification

There is another kind of ignorance that is interesting to explore as well, a kind of category ignorance, where we assume that artificial intelligence belongs to a certain class of phenomena that have a lot in common – that it is, say, a technology like any other. This is a point of contention – in fact it may be the crux in a lot of debates about the impact of artificial intelligence overall, but it is worthwhile at least exploring this possible ignorance.

How do we know that some particular phenomenon X should belong to a certain class or category? We look at likenesses and we look at history – phylogenetic and morphological analysis suggests that something belongs to one species and not another. For artificial intelligence we look at it the history in computer science and the way that artificial intelligence is constructed with programming and data, and so we assume that it is a computational technology like any other. In essence what we are arguing is that artificial intelligence is a species of spreadsheet.

Is this right? It can be. But what if we are truly ignorant about the nature of this phenomenon, and do not quite understand what it really is? This kind of ignorance about what something really is, is of course very rare – but we have examples of misclassified parts of the Darwinian tree as well as discoveries of entirely new branches of that same tree as well – so it does seem possible.

Of all the different kinds of ignorance we should be exploring more deeply, this one seems to be uniquely interesting.

Notes

Footnotes and references

Footnotes and references

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