Deep uncertainty(Mental models XV)

The concept of deep uncertainty is intriguing and important - as defined it is: Deep uncertainty exists when parties to a decision do not know, or cannot agree on, the system model that relates action to consequences, the probability distributions to place over the inputs to these models, which consequences to consider and their relative… Continue reading Deep uncertainty(Mental models XV)

Is it a competition or a race? Building scoring structures (Mental Models XIII)

Metrics are dangerous. You manage what you measure, as the old saw goes, and you want to make sure that you are not measuring the wrong thing - or things. We need to take great care when we set up metrics for anything we want to accomplish in order to make sure that we do… Continue reading Is it a competition or a race? Building scoring structures (Mental Models XIII)

The study of failure mode (Mental Models XII)

In John Gall's peculiar Systemantics: The Systems Bible the reader will find a wealth of often funny but always deep insights. One of these insights that has occupied me lately is this: The important point is: ANY LARGE SYSTEM IS GOING TO BE OPERATING MOST OF THE TIME IN FAILURE MODE What the System is… Continue reading The study of failure mode (Mental Models XII)

Practicing predictions (Mental models IX)

Predicting is hard, especially the future, as Yogi Berra supposedly pointed out. But it is interesting - but not necessarily for the reasons we originally think. Predicting the future is interesting not because you want to find out if you are right, but you want to use the predictions you make to tease out the… Continue reading Practicing predictions (Mental models IX)