Deep uncertainty(Mental models XV)

The concept of deep uncertainty is intriguing and important - as defined it is: Deep uncertainty exists when parties to a decision do not know, or cannot agree on, the system model that relates action to consequences, the probability distributions to place over the inputs to these models, which consequences to consider and their relative… Continue reading Deep uncertainty(Mental models XV)

Is it a competition or a race? Building scoring structures (Mental Models XIII)

Metrics are dangerous. You manage what you measure, as the old saw goes, and you want to make sure that you are not measuring the wrong thing - or things. We need to take great care when we set up metrics for anything we want to accomplish in order to make sure that we do… Continue reading Is it a competition or a race? Building scoring structures (Mental Models XIII)

The study of failure mode (Mental Models XII)

In John Gall's peculiar Systemantics: The Systems Bible the reader will find a wealth of often funny but always deep insights. One of these insights that has occupied me lately is this: The important point is: ANY LARGE SYSTEM IS GOING TO BE OPERATING MOST OF THE TIME IN FAILURE MODE What the System is… Continue reading The study of failure mode (Mental Models XII)

Limiting factors (Mental Models XI)

One interesting way of approaching a problem is to identify the limiting factors - what is that sets the ultimate limits for progress on a particular issue? In many cases it will be time - there are some things we could do in theory, but where the time needed exceeds the calculated time available to… Continue reading Limiting factors (Mental Models XI)