Capability forecasting

A lot of work has gone into what is sometimes called "technology forecasting" - attempting to understand how semiconductors, artificial intelligence, quantum computing, proteomics etc will evolve over the coming years. Such research is valuable and interesting - and can be interestingly contrasted with something we could call "capability forecasting". Capability forecasting is focusing not… Continue reading Capability forecasting

Risk and Opportunity – the simplest framework

All organizations occasionally should stop and consider the risks and opportunities facing them, and discuss both mitigation options for the risks and exploitation options for the opportunity. There are many different ways of doing this, but one of the simplest frameworks is the tried and tested impact / probability matrix. What you do is list… Continue reading Risk and Opportunity – the simplest framework

Practicing predictions (Mental models IX)

Predicting is hard, especially the future, as Yogi Berra supposedly pointed out. But it is interesting - but not necessarily for the reasons we originally think. Predicting the future is interesting not because you want to find out if you are right, but you want to use the predictions you make to tease out the… Continue reading Practicing predictions (Mental models IX)

The long arc of uncertainty bends towards…?

The IMF has published an update of its interesting uncertainty index. Noone will be surprised to find that the Covid-19 pandemic and the presidential elections drove uncertainty up, but the real scoop in the chart is the overall slant of the curve we can construct: If the upward slope of the curve suggests that independent… Continue reading The long arc of uncertainty bends towards…?