Category: Scenario Planning
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How can we deal with ten year forecasting and planning in an interesting way? The naive approach would be to simply guess what state of the world will be probable in ten years, and then describe that as well as we can. This is akin to a kind of science…
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The IMF has published an update of its interesting uncertainty index. Noone will be surprised to find that the Covid-19 pandemic and the presidential elections drove uncertainty up, but the real scoop in the chart is the overall slant of the curve we can construct: If the upward slope of…
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+ Contemporary patterns, Future Studies, Scenario Planning, The philosophy of decisions, The Structure of Human Knowledge+
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In Gary Klein’s work on insights, Seeing What Other’s Don’t (2013), the author spends a fair bit of time on discussing what happens when we have had an insight, and why so many organizations ignore them. His explanation is that many organizations lack a process for changing goals or adapting…
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The storming of the Capitol yesterday was in many ways an instructive event. The political repercussions will reverberate through the coming years and we have most likely not seen the last of president Trump yet. Furthermore, the tech policy questions around platform responsibility are now likely to be even more…